Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Predictions: Will BTC Drop Below $75K Before March?
Derive.xyz sheds light on the current landscape, offering a measured perspective on the price trajectories of BTC and ETH.

A recent update released by Derive.xyz sheds light on the current landscape, offering a measured perspective on the price trajectories of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). The analysis highlights how short-term volatility and long-term trends may influence these leading cryptocurrencies.
Bitcoin Price Outlook
Focusing first on Bitcoin, Derive.xyz places the likelihood of its price slipping below the $75,000 mark before February 28, 2025, at around 9.7%. While some analysts foresee a short-term decline, they also anticipate a subsequent recovery that could see BTC approaching the ambitious target of $250,000 later in the year. However, projections suggest that such a milestone is unlikely, with only a 4.4% probability of Bitcoin surpassing the $250,000 threshold by September 2025.
A critical element shaping Bitcoin’s future value is the rising interest in state-level Bitcoin reserves, particularly in locales such as Texas, Utah, and Arizona. Although the federal government has yet to adopt Bitcoin reserves officially, these state initiatives may bolster demand and promote broader acceptance among institutional and retail investors. This enhanced acceptance could play a pivotal role in propelling Bitcoin’s value upward over time.
Looking ahead to the end of the first quarter of 2025, optimism regarding Bitcoin’s ability to exceed $115,000 by March has waned significantly, dropping from 16% to a mere 8% over the past week. Despite this shift in sentiment, analysts project that Bitcoin will retain a consistent price range, with a 95% chance of remaining between $65,500 and $156,600 by the end of March.
Ethereum’s Short-Term Challenges
In contrast, Ethereum is facing a more challenging short-term outlook. Currently, there is a 25% probability that its price could dip below $2,500 by the end of February, an increase from 15.3% the previous week. However, Ethereum’s long-term trajectory remains optimistic, with a 35.5% chance of achieving the $5,000 benchmark by September 2025.
The pressure on Ethereum’s Total Value Locked (TVL) from competitors like Solana and Aptos presents additional challenges. Yet, innovations such as Ethrealize may catalyze growth and trigger positive price movements by Q2 2025. Moreover, Ethereum has drawn considerable long-term investment interest, including upwards of $100 million from firms associated with former President Trump, indicating strong confidence in the platform’s future viability.
In conclusion, while Bitcoin shows resilience with minimal risk of falling below $75,000 in the near term, Ethereum’s outlook appears more precarious. Nevertheless, both cryptocurrencies showcase substantial long-term potential as the blockchain ecosystem continues to mature and evolve, prompting keen interest from market participants in the ongoing developments related to Bitcoin’s state-level adoption and the competitive landscape surrounding Ethereum.