Momentum is building in the altcoin market as CoinMarketCap’s Altseason Index climbs steadily, capturing the attention of major figures in the crypto space. Binance founder Changpeng “CZ” Zhao recently shared on X, “Not sure how accurate it is, but it is ticking up. FOMO season soon…” His comments fuel speculation that a full-blown alt season could be on the horizon. 

The Altcoin Season Index now sits at 51, rising from 38 just a week ago and significantly up from 16 a month ago. While it hasn’t yet reached the critical 75 mark that defines a complete “altcoin season,” the rapid rise indicates that a market rotation is gaining momentum. This index measures whether the top 100 altcoins have outperformed Bitcoin over a 90-day period.

Ethereum and Meme Coins Lead the Shift 

In this early phase of the potential alt season, Ethereum and meme tokens have taken center stage. Ethereum has surged 110% in the last 90 days, while meme tokens like BONK and FLOKI have jumped by 148.7% and 119.1%, respectively. Even lower-cap tokens such as PENGU and M have posted staggering gains, exceeding 500%, according to CoinMarketCap data.

Notably, Bitcoin’s dominance has sharply declined, now sitting at 5.8% after dropping below 61% in just one week, which appears to be its lowest level since March. This decline coincides with a surge in the total cryptocurrency market capitalization, which increased from $3 trillion to an impressive $3.8 trillion in only three weeks.

Market Sentiment Turns Risk-On

Historically, alt seasons tend to follow Bitcoin rallies. Typically, Bitcoin ignites the broader market, prompting traders to rotate capital into riskier assets, leading to altcoin surges. According to CZ and current market indicators, that pattern may be repeating.

However, some analysts express caution. As X user Henry observed, “Everyone is saying ALTSEASON has started, but if you look at the indicators, they say ~ Not yet.” With the index still below 75 and several macro indicators remaining inactive, it’s evident that excitement is on the rise, but the market hasn’t fully committed to an altcoin breakout yet.

Ethereum’s Breakout May Signal the Start of a True Altseason

Adding further weight to the growing altcoin narrative, BitMEX co-founder and Maelstrom Fund head Arthur Hayes has turned decisively bullish on Ethereum, projecting a price target of $10,000. His shift in stance follows Bitcoin’s breakout above its all-time high, which he believes has “reignited risk appetite” across the crypto market. “$BTC busted through ATH on good volume. $ETH is following and will outperform, get ready for a monster alt szn,” Hayes posted on X. With Ethereum now hovering near $2,985, he boldly added: “Arise Chikun, it’s time… $ETH = $10,000. Yachtzee.”

Hayes is optimistic about U.S. fiscal policy changes, especially with a potential Trump presidency, and their impact on market liquidity. He believes sustained government spending could favor risk assets, particularly Ethereum. With growing institutional interest and improving liquidity, Ethereum seems set to lead the next crypto cycle, aligning with CoinMarketCap’s rising Altcoin Season Index.